Jacky Luiten

72 | Chapter 5 Table 5.1 Overall screening results. Screening year 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05‐06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 Total Screens Initial Subsequent 48,721 9,602 39,119 53,718 8,968 44,750 53,489 6,902 46,587 61,251 7,038 54,213 66,300 6,588 59,712 67,530 7,057 60,473 90,128 10,182 79,946 113,335 12,969 100,366 131,427 14,015 117,412 131,757 14,220 117,537 817,656 97,541 720,115 Recall , (%) 536 (1.1) 499 (0.9) 555 (1.0) 985 (1.6) 874 (1.3) 1,003 (1.5) 2,359 (2.6) 3,507 (3.1) 4,653 (3.5) 3,621 (2.7) 18,592 (2.3) Initial, 163 128 113 211 198 226 558 865 1,133 1,017 4,612 Initial % [95CI]* 1.7 [1.4‐2.0] 1.4 [1.2‐1.7] 1.6 [1.3‐1.9] 3.0 [2.6‐3.4] 3.0 [2.6‐3.4] 3.2 [2.8‐3.6] 5.5 [5.0‐5.9] 6.7 [6.2‐7.1] 8.1 [7.6‐8.5] 7.2 [6.7‐7.6] 4.7 [4.6‐4.9] Subsequent 373 371 442 774 676 777 1.801 2,642 3,520 2,604 13,980 Subsequent %[95CI] | 0.95 [0.9‐1.0] 0.8 [0.7‐0.9] 0.95 [0.9‐1.0] 1.4 [1.3‐1.5] 1.1 [1.0‐1.2] 1.3 [1.2‐1.4] 2.3 [2.1‐2.4] 2.6 [2.5‐2.7] 3.0 [2.9‐3.1] 2.2 [2.1‐2.3] 1.9 [1.9‐1.9] Cancer 224 275 254 345 322 354 571 775 925 887 4,932 CDR ± 4.6 5.1 4.7 5.6 4.9 5.2 6.3 6.8 7.0 6.7 6.0 Initial ± 5.7 7.5 5.1 5.5 8.3 6.5 7.1 6.9 8.1 8.4 7.1 Subsequent ± 4.3 4.6 4.7 5.6 4.5 5.1 6.2 6.8 6.9 6.5 5.9 PPV for recall , % 41.8 55.1 45.8 35.0 36.8 35.3 24.2 22.1 19.9 24.5 26.5 Initial, % [95%CI] 33.7 [26.5‐41.0] 52.3 [43.7‐61.0] 31.0 [22.4‐39.5] 18.5 [13.2‐23.7] 27.8 [21.5‐34.0] 20.4 [15.1‐25.6] 12.9 [10.1‐15.7] 10.4 [8.4‐12.4] 10.1 [8.3‐11.8] 11.7 [9.7‐13.7] 15.0 [14.0‐16.0] Subsequent %[95CI] 45.3 [40.3‐50.4] 56.1 [51.0‐61.0] 49.5 [44,9‐54.2] 39.5 [36.1‐43.0] 39.5 [35.8‐43.2] 39.6 [36.2‐43.1] 27.7 [25.6‐29.8] 25.9 [24.3‐27.6] 23.0 [21.6‐24.4] 29.5 [27.7‐31.2] 30.3 [29.6‐31.1] * Because these initial screenings involve all different women, the intervals are correct (95% coverage); | Because of dependence between repeat screenings, these interval are not entirely correct, but likely conservative (i.e., actual variance is smaller). As data could not be retrieved per woman per repeat screen (anonymous data base), full correlations cannot be modelled and estimated . ± Per 1,000 screens. CDR = cancer detection rate, PPV = positive predictive value.

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