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80 Table11: Rating Assumptions Assumption Confidence Lead time Impact Assumption score Comment 1 2 3 4 1 2 1 2 3 4 Assumptions and Risks As discussed above, an Assumption is the flip side of a risk. When we use an assumption, we expect something to happen, while with a risk, we ask what we will do if something does not happen, or how to increase the probability that something will happen. We measure risks by looking at their probability and impact. The probability may be highly likely, likely and not likely. The impact may be catastrophic, significant, medium and minor. Project usually give the parameters a numerical rating. A matrix (Table 11) of the impact and probability allows us to develop a priority. Table 11: Risk Assessment Matrix Conclusion This chapter started with arguing that conducting a readiness assessment is important before M&E can be implemented. Readiness is a barometer for assessing likelihood of a successful M&E. Once a readiness assessment has been conducted and hopefully results suggest the organisation is ready, a basis for comparison can be established through conducting baseline surveys. A baseline acts as the base upon which progress in a project will be judged. After a baseline has been established, the evaluation team can then agree on aspect of the project that will be monitored and evaluated. The aspects and components of the project that require M&E should be accompanied by performance questions, information needs and indicators that cannot only help guide M&E processes but will help assess progress and impact. Therefore,