Hester van Eeren

| Chapter 2 2 | 26 Table 2. Scenario analyses CAFY’s gained Cost savings Base case 6.88 8,577 Scenario 1: transition rate FFT=TAU -0.02 -718 Scenario 2: TC FFT = TC TAU 6.85 9,112 Scenario 3: excl. family costs 6.88 6,307 FFT = Functional Family Therapy TAU = Treatment As Usual TC = Treatment Costs -€ 60,000 -€ 40,000 -€ 20,000 € 0 € 20,000 € 40,000 € 60,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 diitotnalcsFnYoY gdeYsltai Figure 4. Cost-effectiveness results - Base case analysis Scenario analyses Scenario analysis can reveal how the results change if certain parameters are changed. The scenario analysis indicates that the model is particularly sensitive to changes in transition rates whereas the results appear rather robust to changes in other input parameters (Table 2). When transition rates of TAU and FFT are assumed equal (Table 2, Scenario 1), cost savings and CAFY gains entirely vanish. Simulation then results, on average, in an incremental effect of zero and negligible differences in costs between the interventions. The results of the model thus appear to strongly depend on accurate estimates of transition probabilities. Variation in intervention costs does not yield significant differences in costs or effects (Table 2, Scenario 2), whereas exclusion of family costs not only results in a decrease in cost savings but also decreases the variance of the incremental costs (Table 2, Scenario 3). Additional costs CAFYs g ined