Josephine van Dongen

3 Updated cost-effectiveness and risk-benefit analysis 83 Table S3 – Universal vaccination compared to no vaccination: Baseline assumptions and applied sensitivity and scenario analyses Scenario ∆ QALY ∆ soc- ietal cost (in mio. €) a ICER (€/ QALY) - Societal perspec- tive ∆ health- care cost (in mio. €) a ICER (€/ QALY)- Health- care payer perspec- tive Induced IS/com- plicated IS cases Induced IS: prevent- ed fatal cases Induced IS: pre- vented hospi- talized cases Mean (95% CI) Mean (95% CI) Mean (95% CI) Mean (95% CI) Mean (95% CI) Mean (95% CI) Mean (95% CI) Mean (95% CI) Baseline 1907 (1114- 2915) 98 (74- 116) 51,277 (29,259- 94,686) 137 (126- 148) 72,021 (45,102- 126,919) 58.4 / 2.8 1:1.8 (1:1.0- 1:2.8) 1:685 (1:603- 1:767) Sensitivity and scenario analyses: w.r.t. assumed intussusception (IS) risk (in baseline 1:50,000) and compli- cated IS (in baseline 4.8%) IS risk: 1:20,000 1907 (1114- 2915) 98 (74-116) 51,350 (29,302- 94,814) 137 (126- 148) 72,090 (45,144- 127,054) 146.0/7.0 1:0.7 (1:0.4- 1:1.1) 1:274 (1:241- 1:307) IS risk: 1:100,000 1908 (1114- 2916) 98 (74-116) 51,253 (29,245- 94,643) 137 (126- 148) 71,998 (45,088- 126,874) 29.0/1.4 1:3.5 (1:1.9- 1:5.6) 1:1370 1:1206- 1:1533 Compli- cated IS 0% 1908 (1114- 2915) 98 (74-116) 51,270 (29,255- 94,674) 137 (126- 148) 72,014 (45,098- 126,906) 58.4 / 0.0 1:1.8 (1:1.0- 1:2.8) 1:685 (1:603- 1:767) Compli- cated IS 9.6% 1907 (1114- 2915) 98 (74-116) 51,284 (29,263- 94,697) 137 (126- 148) 72,027 (45,106- 126,931) 58.4 / 5.6 1:1.8 (1:1.0- 1:2.8) 1:685 (1:603- 1:767) w.r.t. assumed hospitalization rate Lower hospital- ization rate (*75%) 1608 (949- 2419) 124 (101- 140)) 76,831 (47,406- 135,892) 157 (148- 166) 97,654 (63,262 - 169,264) 58.4 / 2.8 1:1.3 (1:0.7- 1:2.1) 1:514 (1:452- 1:575) Higher hospital- ization rate (*125%) 2213 (1262- 3435)) 72 (47-93) 32,581 (16,434- 63,943) 118 (104- 131) 53,214 (32,257- 96,889) 58.4 / 2.8 1:2.2 (1:1.2- 1:3.5) 1:856 (1:754- 1:958) w.r.t. hospitalization costs Lower hospital- ization costs (*75%) 1907 (1114- 2915) 116 (94-133) 61,023 (36,124- 110,191) 156 (147- 165) 81,767 (51,898- 142,952) 58.4 / 2.8 1:1.8 (1:1.0- 1:2.8) 1:685 (1:603- 1:767)