Aernoud Fiolet

363 Clinical implications and future perspectives Figure 1. Ten-year and lifetime risk with the addition of colchicine. The expected absolute risk reduction and number needed to treat (NNT) when colchicine is added to optimal medical treatment. For risk prediction, an outpatient clinic example of a cigarette smoking 65-year-old male with coronary disease was selected. He is treated with acetylsalicylic acid, has a systolic blood pressure below 140 mmHg with antihypertensive drugs, and has a low-density lipoprotein (LDL)–cholesterol level of 1.8 mmoles/liter using statins. The upper panel shows his probability (%) of survival free of myocardial infarction or stroke. The blue area under the curve represents lifetime risk on the current therapy. The green area under the curve shows change in expected lifetime risk with the introduction of anti- inflammatory treatment with colchicine. The middle panel shows the10-year risk for myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death. The green bar shows the absolute reduction in his risk. The lower panel shows his lifetime risk for myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death. The green bar shows the absolute reduction in his risk. Abbreviations: CVD, cardiovascular disease. NNT, number-needed-to-treat.