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Paradoxes in global talent pipelines 119 6.1 Introduction Western multinationals are recruiting large numbers of university graduates in the hope that these will one day form their top leadership teams (Stahl et al., 2012). Graduates happily join these organizations as they seek challenging jobs with opportunities for both personal and professional development, preferably in overseas or cross-cultural contexts (Festing & Shafer, 2014; Latukha, 2011; Tharenou, 2003). Nevertheless, multinationals face a significant challenge in retaining these young professionals and sustaining their global talent pipelines (Collings &Mellahi, 2009; Latukha, 2011; Stahl et al., 2012; Sturges, Guest, Conway, & Davey, 2002), resulting in high costs related to the replacement and loss of human capital (Cascio & Boudreau, 2010; Huselid & Becker, 2011). Three human resources (HR) practices may help to segment and retain employees according to the human capital they resemble. First, relative performance evaluation systems help to rank and reward employees based on their contributions. These systems would attract skilled, high performing employees but repel those with less human capital (Blume, Baldwin, & Rubin, 2009; Griffeth & Hom, 2001; Nyberg, 2010; Steel, Griffeth, & Hom, 2002; Stewart, Gruys, & Storm, 2010). Second, leadership potential assessments are used to identify employees with high potential early on. High potentials often receive differential investments in their development and progression and such exclusive talent management would help attract, develop, and retain human capital (Björkman, Ehrnroooth, Mäkelä, Smale, & Sumelius, 2013; Dries & Pepermans, 2008; Hausknecht, Rodda, & Howard, 2009; Stahl et al., 2012). Third, multinationals use international assignments to transfer, develop, and retain their human capital. Short-term international assignments (STIA), lasting up to twelve months, are most frequently used to expatriate young professionals (Kang, Shen, & Benson, 2017; Shaffer, Kraimer, Chen, & Bolino, 2012). These STIA are considered a privilege and a development opportunity and may thus improve employee and talent retention, despite the lesser mobility support (Stahl et al., 2012; Steel et al., 2002; Tahvanainen, Welch, & Worm, 2005; Tsui, Pearce, Porter, & Tripoli, 1997). However, hard evidence for the human capital implications of potential assessments and STIA is hitherto missing. Paradoxically, adverse effects may even exist. For instance, high potentials may perceive and pursue more external opportunities due to their talent status (De Cuyper & De Witte, 2011; Gelens, Hofmans, Dries, & Pepermans, 2014; Griffeth, Hom, & Gaertner, 2000) and adjustment- and career-related issues seems common during and after expatriation (e.g., Kraimer, Shaffer, & Bolino, 2009; Stahl, Chua, Caligiuri, Cerdin, & Taniguchi, 2009). This study tracked 9013 new graduate recruits through the HR information systems (HRIS) of two large multinationals to explore how HRM practices affect trainees’ turnover behavior. Our survival analysis with time-varying covariates (Therneau, Crowson, & Atkinson, 2017) allows us to establish how changes in performance evaluations, potential assessments, and international opportunities affect the duration of trainees’ employment. Moreover, by collaborating with two large, truly global organizations, we explore how relations generalize across organizational contexts. On the one hand, our longitudinal analysis contributes to talent management research, where studies have hitherto focused