139 Opening up or closing down anticipatory governance 5 5.4. Approaches to anticipatory climate governance in four regions This section discusses the findings in the four regions: West Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Central America.1 Appendices 5.1 – 5.4 list for each region the anticipation reports and literature and policy documents reviewed, and interviews and focus group discussions held. The table below lists the 12 processes that were examined in detail. Table 5.1. Twelve processes examined in detail West Africa South Asia Southeast Asia Central America Climate modelling and policy workshops under the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis Quantified participatory scenario narratives for the 12th Five Year Plan for India Climate change and sea level rises scenarios of the Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change Urban development scenarios for the Sustainable Tourism Master Plan in Belize Data generation and collection workshop under the West African Biodiversity and Climate Change Participatory foresight process for the 7th Five Year Plan in Bangladesh Climate forecasts and foresight for Climate Action for ASEAN Agriculture Resilient Societies 2020 Environmental assessment for the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for the Agri-Food Sector of Honduras Scenario-guided policy reformulation of Burkina Faso’s Rural Development Plan II Two sets of scenarios for the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 Qualitative and quantitative scenarios for the Lower Basin Mekong Development Strategy Quantitative and qualitative scenarios for Costa Rica’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution process 5.4.1. Anticipatory governance processes in West Africa 5.4.1.1. Anticipation processes Following the ratification of the UNFCCCs Paris Agreement most West African countries have shifted their priorities from adapting to present-day vulnerabilities towards the anticipation of more long-term climate vulnerabilities (Noblet et al., 2018). The anticipation processes reviewed for West Africa (see appendix 5.1 for a full list of anticipation processes analyzed) combine methods and tools; the majority starts with model-based scenarios, such as climate modeling (e.g., impact of precipitation) and crop modeling (e.g., impact of temperature rise and precipitation changes on crop yields) to 1 Each section presents a synthesis of a study that is also published as a standalone regional working paper by one of the co-authors of this paper: South Asia (Muzammil et al., 2021), Southeast Asia (Peou et al., 2021) and Central America (Veeger et al., 2021). The West Africa analysis was published as a journal article (Muiderman, 2022).
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTk4NDMw