143 Opening up or closing down anticipatory governance 5 5.4.2.2. Conceptions of the future, implications for actions and ultimate aims The CCAFS participatory foresight process for the 7th Five Year Plan in Bangladesh used a combination of regional, participatory, qualitative plausibility-focused participatory scenarios created for South Asia, supported by the IPCC’s climate and socio-economic scenarios; quantified agricultural economic modelling, and national impact studies. These scenarios were downscaled to create qualitative scenarios specifically for Bangladesh help support workshop participants (the Bangladesh Planning Commission) in their testing of the core elements of the 7th Five Year Plan (Vervoort et al., 2014), as associated with approach 2. The anticipation process for the 12th Five Year Plan for India quantified participatory scenario narratives with a system dynamics model to ‘add quantitative rigor’ to the narratives. The aimwas to understand the major challenges India faces in the future and to ensure more democratic and inclusive outcomes that took voices of all the different regions and societal groups into consideration. The scenario recommendations helped prioritize infrastructure and human capital investments for the aim of successfully reaping its ‘demographic dividend’ (approach 2 with elements of 1 and 4). The Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 used two different scenario processes to develop a robust, adaptive, integrated planning strategy for water secure, flood safe, climate resilient and prosperous delta. First, Dutch research consultants developed four scenario narratives of hypothetical futures including a wide range of drivers (approach 2). Thereafter the General Economic Division invited a team of Ecosystem Services consultants who proposed to validate and extend scenarios drivers through integrated modelling. While the first team disagreed because the scenarios were purely intended as test beds of plausible uncertain futures, two out of four scenarios were developed into policy scenarios and placed in a macroeconomic context that were easily communicable to policymakers and more suitable in the context of development (approach 1) (Hasan et al., 2020). The initial set of four future scenario narratives ended up in the annex. These examples also illustrate hybrid approaches of 1 and 2, combined with elements of 4. In addition, they demonstrate how anticipation can provide openings for opening up to different frames of the future but are enforced to close down in the formulation of possibilities for actions in the present. 5.4.2.3. Opening up/closing down The CCAFS project followed approach 2 but was used for more linear policy planning in some respects; although the result of the approach 2-based analysis of the 7th 5-year plan did also focus on adding elements that focused on building general resilience. The 12th Year Plan opened a plausiblistic process (approach 2) up to give agency to diverse
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