144 Chapter 5 societal groups (approach 4) but closed down into two macro-economic scenario’s that fitted current policy frames (approach 1). The Delta Plan 2100 used approaches 1 and 2 in parallel, which started to compete, and the two macro-economic and policy relevant scenarios won from the four testbed scenarios– illustrating how policy relevancy delimits futures possibilities. Discussions with participants highlighted that the government of Bangladesh takes a very technocratic and expert-analytic stance on climate change anticipation, funding primarily simulation modeling of flood risks for technical solutions to control floods and other disasters. These presumptions about what anticipatory governance is for shapes the types of processes that are funded and the space available for critical dialogue. It was also said that participatory processes were often less inclusive than initially aimed for, with ‘usual suspects’ such as government officials and researchers joining while local community voices, marginalized perspectives (e.g., women and youth groups) and other groups whose futures are at stake were excluded. The CCAFS process was said to have introduced uncertainty and plausibility to the Planning Commission which felt uncomfortable to them initially but was considered to have added value in the end. In the final policy, this also resulted in a focus on resilience and flexibility in the policy changes (around infrastructure and education). However, it remained a relatively closed process in terms of participation, particularly in terms of the voices included and political agendas that shaped the process – policy uptake was prioritized instead. 5.4.3. Anticipatory governance processes in Southeast Asia 5.4.3.1. Anticipation processes In Southeast Asia, there is a growing concern for increasing awareness and reflexivity about future impacts of climate change and strategically work towards more resilient societies. As a result, climate legislation multiplied over the last years and there are numerous new stakeholders and agencies to support and test future-oriented policy formulation. Almost all national policies use some form of anticipation process to inform climate change decision-making and clearly report on their approach (see appendix 5.3 for a full list of anticipation processes analyzed). A variety of anticipatory processes are used, predominantly quantitative climate scenarios, but also visioning, horizon scanning, environmental assessments, and participatory foresight. Each policy is nationally endorsed and there is quite a strong political will to implement action. Some anticipation processes are expert driven but others seek to develop a common future and involve a wider range of stakeholders. Financial support and technical input come from international organizations such as the European Union, the United Nations Development Program and the World Bank, and donor organizations such as the Swedish International Development cooperation Agency and GIZ.
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