145 Opening up or closing down anticipatory governance 5 5.4.3.2. Conceptions of the future, implications for actions and ultimate aims The Association of the Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) formulated the Climate Action for ASEAN Agriculture Resilient Societies 2020 based on climate forecasts and foresight expertise within international organizations, horizon scanning and visioning in a participatory process, and embedded the ASEAN member countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions in plausible future scenarios. Participants were encouraged to share a future they want in the participatory process. The aim was to realize future societal resilience. The normative futures visions in the ASEAN process were complemented by strategies and technologies that allow for achieving its consolidated vision, followed by a timeline for implementing and prioritizing interventions (approach 2 with elements of 1 and 3). The roadmap that resulted from the process still provides the reference framework for several policy processes. The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change developed climate change and sea level rises scenarios for a three-year frequency in an approach 1 probabilistic process, with the aim to understand climate risks and its impact on development. For the Lower Basin Mekong Development Strategy 2016-2020 developed its Mekong River Commission nine climate change scenarios using qualitative and quantitative methods. The scenarios present diverse projections of the magnitude of climate change under low to high carbon emissions, and seasonal precipitation patterns, for four different time horizons. The impacts of these scenarios on the economy and environment, amongst others, were discussed in a two-year participatory process. The Lower Basin Mekong scenarios followed a process of determining long-term objectives as part of its Development Strategy (combining approaches 1 and 2). 5.4.3.3. Opening up/closing down The ASEAN processes followed largely approach 2 - a plausiblistic process to increase residence - with approach 1 prediction-oriented anticipation and approach 3 pluralistic elements. The openings were closed down into linear planning in terms of the timeline and roadmap. The Vietnam scenarios followed approach 1 in a closed from of anticipatory governance. The Lower Basin Mekong Development scenarios combined approaches 1 and 2. Despite this participatory process, stakeholders were invited to discuss the future within the confines of the scenarios developed – delimiting future possibilities. The ASEAN process took a more agentic perspective to anticipation and attempted to open up to include pluralistic futures (approach 3). The co-created desired future visions
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