146 Chapter 5 were first considered impossibly optimistic and naïve by ASEAN members, but they saw its mobilizing potential when the NDC roadmap that resulted from the scenarios was used as the backbone for a joint statement by all ASEAN member countries for resilient agriculture. This example illustrates both a potential and struggle for opening up anticipatory governance. Participants described the Vietnam scenarios as a strongly centralized and top-down process with high policy impact – it never opened up to divergent worldviews or contestations and provided strong policy enforcement because the process was directly under the order of the government who ensured policy uptake. The Vietnam Community party reviewed and integrated the scenarios into national and external policy processes as the baseline for all climate decision-making, including several policies, UNFCCC communication, national and subnational communications campaigns. These examples illustrate hybrids approaches of 1, 2 and 3 and highlight several dynamics of the closing down of opened up futures in the formulation of actions in the present. 5.4.4. Anticipatory governance processes in Central America 5.4.4.1. Anticipation processes The anticipation processes reviewed in the Central American context were similar to those in the other regions (see appendix 5.4 for a full list of anticipation processes analyzed). Most anticipatory processes are assessments of climate impacts, risks and sectoral vulnerabilities and quantitative climate scenarios. These processes explore current and future impacts of climate change on the environment (biodiversity), health (water availability), development and the economy (agriculture and tourism). Policy documents also report primarily on model-based climate scenarios and climate impacts on e.g., yields, as well as climate impact risks and vulnerability assessments to legitimize decisions. A few used participatory and qualitative foresight methods such as Delphi methods and participatory scenarios development, but always in combination with quantitative climate scenarios and vulnerability assessments. Most processes were initiated as independent processes that aim to guide decision making and governments also relied on independently designed processes. Nevertheless, some of these independent processes were complemented with foresight in the service of policy formulation. Processes were designed by national and international organization such as the IPCC and the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology of Guatemala (INSIVUMEH). International organizations provide funding, such as the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) and the Nordic Development Fund (NDF) in Europe, and the Inter-American
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTk4NDMw