147 Opening up or closing down anticipatory governance 5 Development Bank in the region. Policy documents often lack clear descriptions of the method used and how outcomes informed actions. 5.4.4.2. Conceptions of the future, implications for actions and ultimate aims The National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for the Agri-Food Sector of Honduras (2015-2024) explored plausible climate change, agriculture and food security futures for which it combined IPCC climate scenarios, impact studies of climate change on agriculture and food security, and four participatory workshops to validate the policy (Argeñal, 2010; USAID, Tetra Tech ARD, 2014). One of these four participatory workshops was organized by CCAFS and invited critical perspectives from farmers as a marginalized group and bring them into dialogue with national and regional policymakers, farmers´ associations, NGOs, teachers, and students. It was initially framed within a more technocratic stance to diversify crops and improve seeds in the face of climate change but ended up increasing awareness for the need to prepare for and build capacities to navigate diverse uncertain futures (approach 2). The Sustainable Tourism Master Plan in Belize used more conventional methods to increase resilience to sea level rise and flooding, such as SWOT analysis, environmental assessments, and land use scenarios (approach 1). The aim of the project was to understand future risks and opportunities and invite public and private stakeholders to imagine the city they want to live in (approaches 1 and 3). The visions were used to prioritize environmental, social, economic and financial measures in the Sustainable Tourism Plan and the Belize City Master Plan and was also seen to have resulted a paradigm shift that collective action is needed between policymakers and citizens to live in harmony with water. The government of Costa Rica started a collaboration with CCAFS in 2015 to make the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) process more ambitious. The government first strengthened its institutional capacity to anticipate climate change and then used open access models to run thousands of climate, energy, land and water scenarios to assess which actions will probably have highest benefits to public health, the economy, climate reliance and mitigation (approach 1). Several qualitative scenario processes followed to collectively imagine alternative futures for more ambitious emission reduction than the models were able to show (combining approaches 2 and 3). One of the participatory scenario processes in 2020 involved 350 stakeholders from different sectors to explore diverse futures and test if policies are robust to scenario conditions. Actions focused on building capacities to anticipate change in a socially just and equitable way (approach 2 with element of 4).
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