Karlijn Muiderman

151 Opening up or closing down anticipatory governance 5 these regional differences are not fully incorporated into the designs of anticipation processes but are mostly based on Global North-style approaches tailored to the context. Nevertheless, some processes pluralistic and critical elements to collectively imagine, critique, and transform futures with public and private partners. This we consider explicitly opening up anticipatory governance – and the Costa Rican example in particular provides important insights into how setting an ambitious climate future agenda can open up anticipatory governance. It thus seems important to give the two approaches that are most marginalized in practice a more prominent place; approach 3 for its opening up space to diverse future worlds and setting of more ambitious agendas, and approach 4 for its opening up space to discuss the role of power and setting of more equitable and just future agendas. An emergent research agenda focused on bottom-up futures processes provides alternative (and more positive) future images that challenge the status quo (Bennett et al., 2016; Pereira et al., 2021). Such bottom-up futures can be successful catalysts for stimulating transformative change, particularly in rural areas (Totin et al., 2018) and steer local governance choices in ways that speak to communities and tap into existing institutional structures (Appadurai, 2013). Our research shows that the opening up or closing down of anticipatory governance are not mutually exclusive but that its dynamics are interwoven. It is important to become aware of these dynamics, also those that happen less consciously, because closing down under the guise of opening up can legitimize inequitable action in a seemingly open, participatory process. According to Stirling it is important to question if anticipation processes mobilize counternarratives to justify or critique findings (Stirling, 2008). Opening up anticipatory governance for more radical transformation means to actively challenge the status quo, and this can be scary to the political elite (Pereira et al., 2021) and go against the nature of imagining the future based on past experiences (Andersson, 2018). Our empirical research provides insights into global calls for anticipatory governance that is reflexive of radical uncertainties, indeterminacies and competing visions (Bellamy et al., 2013; Gupta, 2011; Gupta et al., 2020) including a growing awareness of the unequal power structures in futures work (Appadurai, 2013; Gram-Hanssen et al., 2022; Sardar, 1993). Connecting the framework on anticipatory governance with the notion of opening up and closing down helped to understand and explain these dominant dynamics in specific contexts across the globe.

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