43 Four approaches to anticipatory governance 2 risks and uncertainties can be made partially knowable and manageable, and that such knowledge can be gained by reducing scientific uncertainty and complexity regarding the directions of future change. In this approach, probable futures are identified by analyzing patterns of the past, which can shed light on and help to explore future trends and their probabilities (see e.g. Börjeson et al., 2006; Cuhls, 2003). At the same time, there is also a concern with exploring improbable/low-likelihood futures that may have a high impact on society. Part of the rationale for exploring improbable futures is to develop knowledge infrastructures for detecting early warnings of low-probability but high-impact contingencies (Fuerth, 2009a; Fuerth & Faber, 2013). Actions in the present: Flowing from the manner of engaging with the future as above, this approach to anticipatory governance focuses on prioritizing ‘mission-oriented’ policy action in the present, through analyzing the policy consequences of futures with different probabilities (Fuerth & Faber, 2013). In this view, scientists, engineers and policymakers, or policymakers in whole-of-government approaches, can strategically prioritize and plan the future in the present, pre-empt future threats (Fuerth & Faber, 2013; Stockdale, 2013) and protect long-term societal interests and future investments (Boston, 2017). According to Fuerth, anticipatory governance “improves the capacity to organize planning and action in ways that mobilize the full capacities of governments, and … speed[s] up the process of detecting error and propagating success” (Fuerth, 2009b, p. 31). Thus, the future is conceived as containing reducible risks, which can be acted upon in the present through improved knowledge infrastructures and strategic planning processes. Ultimate aim: The aim here is to reduce future risks, by strategically designing policy trajectories that minimize and steer away from high-risk scenarios (Kuzma et al., 2008), stay ahead of destabilizing developments (Cuhls, 2003; Fuerth, 2009a) and thereby ‘win the future’ (Fuerth, 2009b; Fuerth & Faber, 2013) and ‘safeguard the future’. In this view, expert-driven strategic planning can help to steer towards a more desired future in which risks are reduced and opportunities are seized. 2.4.2. Approach 2: Plausible futures, enhanced preparedness and navigating uncertainty The second approach to anticipatory governance we identify here envisions multiple plausible futures and calls for enhancing preparedness and building capacities in the present to be able to reflexively navigate diverse (uncertain) futures. This approach is discernible in writings on responsible research and innovation and some strands of climate policy and governance literatures, as well as anticipation-focused scholarship in the interdisciplinary transitions and transformations literature. Thematic foci
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