49 Four approaches to anticipatory governance 2 methods align with which approach to anticipatory governance, and whether some methods are used across different approaches. We conclude our discussion by presenting an overview, in Figure 2.2, of how tools and methods of anticipation map onto the four approaches to anticipatory governance. 2.5.1. Anticipatory tools and methods to assess probable and improbable futures (Approach 1) Two sets of anticipatory tools are referred to most often by those subscribing to the first approach to anticipatory governance that we identified, given its focus on calculating probabilities of future risks and on hypothesizing alternative courses of action. These include tools that extend the horizon of awareness to detect risks in the future, as well as tools that set short-term policy priorities based on long-term strategizing (Fuerth, 2009b). In the first category are tools such as Delphi methods, horizon scanning or future commissions, all of which are intended to enhance the capacity of planners to monitor future events, analyse potential implications, simulate alternative courses of action, ask unasked questions, and issue timely warnings (Boston, 2019; Li & Porter, 2018; Fuerth & Faber, 2013). Additional methods relevant here include cost-minimizing scenarios, forward-looking information services, econometric model calculations, technological forecasting, climate statistics, impact assessments, time series analyses and trend analyses (Bradfield et al., 2005; Edwards, 2010; van Notten et al., 2003). In the second category are tools that set short-time policy priorities based on long term strategizing. These include policy analysis, budget analysis, organizational crowdsourcing, public learning, online community tools, risk assessment and scenario analysis (Bezold, 2006; Fuerth, 2009a, 2009b; Ramos, 2014). The envisioned role of science, including social science, and scientific methods is to guide expert-analytical processes and to identify probable future pathways; the role of lay publics is often limited (Cuhls, 2003). 2.5.2. Anticipatory tools and methods to explore plausible futures (Approach 2) Numerous tools are used in exploring multiple plausible futures, the focus of approach 2 (Quay, 2015). Some are generally more associated with probabilistic foresight, such as simulation modelling and weak signal-type approaches. However, one can apply the modelling approaches and weak signal approaches to sets of scenarios that are not ordered by likelihood but include a range of futures that are considered plausible (Sampson et al., 2016; Wender et al., 2012), therefore still falling within a “plausibility envelope”. Other methods common to both approaches 1 and 2 include strategic visioning and backcasting, combined with tools to assess risks, vulnerabilities and monitor
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