TABLE OF CONTENT Chapter 1 Introduction 11 1.1. Anticipating change 12 1.2. Problem statement: the future as an object of governance 13 1.3. Research questions and structure 14 1.4. Theoretical contributions to main bodies of literature 16 1.4.1. Unpacking diverse understandings of anticipatory governance 16 1.4.2. Futures studies and anticipation 17 1.4.3. Governing sustainability transformations 19 1.4.4. The politics of anticipation 20 1.5. Research design and methodology 21 1.6. Thesis roadmap 23 Chapter 2 Four approaches to anticipatory governance 33 2.1. Introduction 34 2.2. Methodology 35 2.2.1. Identifying and selecting literature 36 2.2.2. Process and method of review 36 2.3. Anticipating and seeking to govern the future: a brief overview 37 2.3.1. Explicit engagement with the concept of anticipatory governance 38 2.3.2. Implicit engagement with the concept of anticipatory governance 39 2.4. Four approaches to anticipatory governance: diverse conceptions of the future, actions in the present and ultimate aims 41 2.4.1. Approach 1: Probable futures, strategic planning and risk reduction 42 2.4.2. Approach 2: Plausible futures, enhanced preparedness and navigating uncertainty 43 2.4.3. Approach 3: Pluralistic futures, societal mobilization and co-creating alternatives 45 2.4.4. Approach 4: Performative futures, critical interrogation, and political implications 46 2.5. Methods and tools of anticipation: overlapping use and varying ends 48 2.5.1. Anticipatory tools and methods to assess probable and improbable futures (Approach 1) 49 2.5.2. Anticipatory tools and methods to explore plausible futures (Approach 2) 49 2.5.3. Anticipatory tools and methods to imagine pluralistic futures (Approach 3) 51 2.5.4. Assessing how imagined futures are performative (Approach 4) 51 2.6. Conclusion 53 Chapter 3 Approaches to anticipatory governance in West Africa 67 3.1. Introduction 68 3.2. Four approaches to anticipatory climate governance 69 3.3. Methodology 71 3.3.1. Case study region: West Africa 71
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