69 Approaches to anticipatory governance in West Africa 3 the Global South rely on western science and technologies to govern climate futures (Akamani, 2016). This points to an urgent research agenda and the aim of this paper: to examine the conceptions of the future in methods and tools of anticipation and how they impact actions in the present to govern climate futures in the Global South. This paper examines anticipatory governance processes in a climate-vulnerable context - West Africa. Addressing the research gap in this region is important and urgent because West Africa is considered one of the world’s regions that will be most impacted by climate change (Heinrigs, 2010; Lee et al., 2021; Niang et al., 2014; Sylla et al., 2016), least able to cope with its impacts and largely dependent on international donor funding to govern climate change (Noblet et al., 2018; Tschakert et al., 2016; Yaro & Hesselberg, 2016). In this context, processes of anticipation are examined using a recently developed analytical framework on anticipatory governance. The framework identifies four distinct approaches to anticipatory governance in terms of their conception of the future, implications for the present and ultimate aims (Muiderman et al., 2020). This paper is the first application of the analytical framework to this domain. Consequently, it provides important empirical insights into how conceptions of the future steer climate action in the Global South, and in West Africa in particular, and contributes to the conceptualization of anticipatory governance. 3.2. Four approaches to anticipatory climate governance Anticipatory governance is a concept that is growing in prominence in the social sciences and interdisciplinary sustainability sciences to examine futures work. Scholarly fields include research and innovation, science and technology studies, transition and transformation studies, and future studies. These various fields understand the notion from very distinct ontological, epistemological and normative starting points, and not all necessarily employ the term itself (Boyd et al., 2015; Vervoort & Gupta, 2018; see also Fuerth, 2009; Guston, 2014). Therefore, a recent literature review analyzed different understandings of anticipation and anticipatory governance across these different bodies of literature (Muiderman et al., 2020). The authors identify four distinct approaches in terms of the conception of the future, implications for actions in the present and ultimate aims intended to be realized (Muiderman et al., 2020). These elements have often remained implicit in future-oriented processes and as such the framework provides a new lens to address this gap. The four approaches are: 1. Approach 1: Probable Futures, strategic planning, reducing risks The first approach to anticipatory governance draws on perspectives in public policy and planning literature and probabilistic futures studies. It presents futures as scientifically
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