76 Chapter 3 to the empirical complexity (Flyvbjerg, 2006; Hopkin, 2010). As a result, the analysis of (grey) literature on anticipation, policy documents and interviews provided a more holistic picture of the diverse ways in which anticipation processes steer present-day decision-making. The research presents both an deductive inquiry into anticipatory governance in practice and an inductive inquiry into the utility of the analytical framework based on the practice-oriented research (Toshkov, 2016). The analytical framework guided the research questions. The written statements in the 30 documents were first categorized in two tables: one focusing on the anticipation processes (see appendix A) and on focusing on the policy processes (see appendix B). I examined these documents on the methods and tools of anticipation that had been used, the stakeholders involved and the way in which anticipation was seen to impact decision-making. Then, three processes were additionally analyzed based on perspectives shared in semi-structured interviews to further examine more implicitly embedded conceptions of the future in anticipation processes, their implications for actions in the present and the ultimate aim intended to be realized. 3.4. Approaches to anticipatory climate governance in West Africa This section presents the findings from analyzing the anticipation processes. Section 4.1. first examines written statements regarding 30 anticipation processes on the types of methods and tools used, the stakeholders involved and the way in which anticipation was seen to impact decision-making. Section 4.2. analyzes written and spoken statements on three diverse processes regarding their conceptions of the future, implications for actions in the present and ultimate aims intended to be realized. 3.4.1. Anticipation processes and decision-making 3.4.1.1. Anticipation in research and practice The statements in anticipation research and practice illustrates that a combination of multiple and diverse methods and tools are used in a single project (see appendix 31 for details). Processes include primarily quantitative scenarios that asses probable (and improbable) futures based on the modelling of crop-, macroeconomic or climatic trends (see e.g., Burkina Faso’s National Climate Adaptation Plan, Ministry of Environment and Fishery Resources, 2015). These scenarios are sometimes used as standalone processes (see e.g., the SARRA-H model in the Sudanese and Sahelian savannas), but are often combined with participatory processes such as policy workshops (e.g., AMMA-2050 in Senegal). In addition, a few qualitative participatory scenario methods focused on exploring multiple plausible futures with diverse stakeholders: academia, policy, private sector, and civil society.
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