Karlijn Muiderman

80 Chapter 3 global ones. It is considered that by contrasting multiple models scientific uncertainty about the direction of change can be reduced. Implications for actions in the present: WABiCC work sought to align its work with the NAP process in particular: “We want to help them [policymakers] to better understand how they can better structure the process and make sure that their views are updated with accurate information to do the NAP“ (Interview, 04 October 2018). Through its workshops, WABiCCs intended to build institutional capacities to generate, use and manage climate information. This included changing the mind-sets of policymakers to learn to plan under scientific uncertainty in the absence of objective data and rely on ‘robust enough’ data and interaction with external experts. Capacity building concerns focused amongst others on the national meteorological services who have been underfunded since the countries’ independence. Ultimate aim: WABiCC aimed to increase preparedness and resilience to future climate risks. 3.4.2.2. CCAFS participatory scenarios Conception of the future: The Future Scenarios Project pointed to the fundamental uncertainty of the future and developed a participatory scenario process that explores a wide range of plausible futures according to stakeholders from public and private sectors. The scenarios narratives were developed in a consensual fashion. Implications for actions in the present: The scenarios served as a tool for strategic policy planning and investment decisions and to this end CCAFS engaged directly with the PNSRII policy processes. The recommendations intended to make the policy more robust to multiple uncertain future directions as perceived by a variety of stakeholders. It considered to be of great value: “By getting stakeholders on board it allows for discussing policy priorities. The scenario process was seen as something coming from external, it is not a national process per se, it’s CCAFS who’s leading it. As such, people are just try to be honest, transparent between each other vis a vis the process - seeing the scenario as the common agreed consensual process to undergo the identification of actionable recommendations.” (Interview, 08 October 2018). The PNSR II was believed to have been significantly improved by the processes. However, the document does not explicitly describe the process nor its impact on

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