Chapter 5 100 Table 3. Test characteristics of the Surprise Question and Surprise Question plus Poor Performance for screening for palliative care needs in advanced cancer patients visiting the emergency department Median survival (95% CI) Death <1 year Death >1 year Total Test characteristics % (95% CI) Aim: identifying palliative care needs SQ Sensitivity 89.1 (83.9-93.1) NS 3 months (2.1-3.9) 172 31 203 (82.9%) Specificity 40.4 (27.0-54.9) S 9 months (0.8-17.2) 21 21 42 (17.1%) Positive predictive value 84.7 (81.5-87.5) Total 3 months (1.8-4.2) 193 (78.8%) 52 (21.2%) 245 Negative predictive value 50.0 (37.3-62.8) p<0.0001 Median survival (95% CI) Death <1 year Death >1 year Total Test characteristics % (95% CI) Aim: identifying end-of-life phase SQ + ECOG Sensitivity 40.1 (33.1-47.4) NS + ECOG 3-4 1 month (0.6-1.4) 77 4 81 (33.2%) Specificity 92.3 (81.5-97.9) NS + ECOG 0-2; S 6 months (4.7-7.3) 115 48 163 (66.8%) Positive predictive value 95.1 (88.1-98.0) Total 3 months (1.8-4.2) 192 (78.7%) 52 (21.3%) 244 Negative predictive value 29.4 (26.6-32.4) p<0.0001 In the upper part of the table the test performance of the Surprise Question in all 245 patients is displayed. The lower part of the table presents the test performance of the SQ plus the ECOG performance status. For this, patient population is split in two groups: 1) NS-patients (n=203) with an ECOG performance status of 3 or 4, and 2) NS-patients with an ECOG 0-2 or S-patients with any ECOG status. 1 patient had an unknown ECOG performance status and was excluded for this sub-analysis. List of abbreviations: SQ: surprise question; CI: confidence interval; NS: not surprised; S: surprised; ECOG: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group
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