123 Tracking talented swimmers during the junior-to-senior transition 6 Table 3. Model estimates for male (N=10 with 28 observations) and female (N=14 with 39 observations) swimmers. rST rStart rTurn rSprint rSI rLBP Estimates (S.E.) p value Estimates (S.E.) p value Estimates (S.E.) p value Estimates (S.E.) p value Estimates (S.E.) p value Estimates (S.E.) p value Males Fixed effects Intercept 128.09 (4.41) <0.001 142.88 (7.59) <0.001 118.59 (8.94) <0.001 94.76 (5.81) <0.001 73.08 (17.49) 0.001 -9.57 (22.66) 0.340 Age -0.79 (0.24) 0.002 -1.70 (0.42) <0.001 -0.72 (0.49) 0.082 -0.12 (0.32) 0.359 0.71 (0.96) 0.236 2.62 (1.26) 0.030 Age × high-level performance group -0.34 (0.09) <0.001 -0.31 (0.18) 0.051 -0.35 (0.11) 0.002 0.45 (0.08) <0.001 -0.13 (0.25) 0.304 0.19 (0.24) 0.222 Random Effects σ2 0.85 2.64 4.46 1.79 16.11 18.29 τ00 6.48 25.97 7.74 4.26 45.54 40.24 Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.61 / 0.95 0.31 / 0.94 0.50 / 0.82 0.74 / 0.92 0.02 / 0.74 0.16 / 0.74 Females Fixed effects Intercept 112.95 (3.34) <0.001 135.38 (6.14) <0.001 116.76 (6.66) <0.001 97.00 (8.22) <0.001 81.94 (12.61) <0.001 -6.40 (13.12) 0.316 Age -0.02 (0.20) 0.454 -1.78 (0.38) <0.001 -0.97 (0.41) 0.012 0.03 (0.49) 0.479 -0.06 (0.76) 0.467 2.44 (0.78) 0.003 Age × high-level performance group -0.21 (0.06) 0.001 0.26 (0.17) 0.075 0.01 (0.15) 0.482 0.20 (0.12) 0.059 0.76 (0.23) 0.002 -0.22 (0.16) 0.089 Random Effects σ2 0.87 2.77 3.59 6.36 14.32 11.89 τ00 2.71 24.25 16.10 10.01 40.19 14.86 Marginal R2 / Conditional R2 0.43 / 0.86 0.15 / 0.91 0.05 / 0.83 0.13 / 0.66 0.38 / 0.84 0.22 / 0.65 Note. “Age” term denotes development of lower-performing seniors. “Age + Age × high-level performance group” denotes development of high-performing seniors. Abbreviations: rST (relative swim time); rStart (relative start time); rTurn (relative turn time); rSprint (relative maximal sprint velocity); rSI (relative stroke index); rLBP (relative lower body power). Significant predictor variables (p < 0.05) are denoted in bold with adjustments made for one-sided hypothesis testing in the calculation of the p value.
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