9 General introduction 1 measuring swim performance in terms of fastest time is quite simple, figuring out which youth swimmers are most likely to succeed as adults is anything but that (Koz et al., 2012; Till et al., 2020; Güllich et al., 2014; Güllich et al., 2023; Schorer et al., 2017). The complexity of athlete development A major challenge in talent identification processes for coaches lies in the dynamic nature of athletes’ capabilities, which are not fixed (Baker et al., 2019; Simonton, 2001). Rather than following a consistent upward trajectory, athletes develop along an unpredictable pathway marked by rapid progressions, plateaus, and setbacks (Abbott et al., 2005; Baker et al., 2018). This has been exemplified by studies showing that swimmers who were leading in their age category shifted to lower positions later on and vice versa over time (Barreiros et al., 2014; Brustio et al., 2021). According to the Groningen Sport and Talent Model, the changes in swim performance are driven by changes in underlying performance characteristics linked to the athlete (Elferink-Gemser & Visscher, 2012). These include the rate of learning, training and maturation of anthropometric, physiological, technical, tactical and psychological characteristics. At the same time, the environment plays a crucial role too with parents, coaches and talent development programs creating opportunities to support athlete development, for example by providing resources that facilitate high-quality training (De Bosscher & De Rycke, 2017; Henriksen et al., 2010; Henriksen & Stambulova, 2023; Marinho et al. 2020). All these factors have the potential to interact uniquely for each individual and, moreover, they can also change as someone’s career progresses (Abbott et al., 2005; Simonton, 1999). Therefore, in our efforts to identify and nurture promising swimmers, it is critical to acknowledge and act upon the complex nature of athlete development (Phillips et al., 2010; Ribeiro et al. 2021). Rather than solely focusing on swim performance as a stand-alone measure, which is often the case, we should also uncover the underlying performance characteristics that have contributed to what we see today. These factors may include swimmers’ height, maximal swimming velocity, stroke index, proficiency in starts and turns, lower body power and the ability to train effectively and efficiently (Barbosa et al., 2010b; Jürimäe et al., 2007; Morais et al., 2017; Morais et al., 2019; Morais et al., 2021; Morais et al., 2022; Seffrin et al., 2022). Furthermore, it is important to get an understanding about a swimmer’s developmental process over time. Failing to include this more sophisticated approach could result in missing out on future swimming stars, misallocating limited resources away from the most promising swimmers or falling short of unlocking swimmers’ true potential. Such inefficiency and ineffectiveness is problematic at every level of the system - for The Netherlands as acknowledged swimming nation, but most of all, for those aspiring swimmers who count on us to help them in pursuing their dreams.
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