111 Tracking talented swimmers during the junior-to-senior transition 6 Introduction Competitive swimming is a popular, global sport wherein the finest of margins can determine whether one attains the title or falls short (World Aquatics, 2021). The fastest swimmer is the one who sustains the greatest power output in an efficient and skillful manner throughout the event (Miyashita, 1996). This is influenced by a highly complex interaction of underlying performance characteristics such as anthropometrical (e.g., height), physiological (e.g., muscle power), technical (e.g., stroke index), tactical (e.g., pacing behavior) and psychological (e.g., self-regulation of learning) factors (Barbosa et al., 2010; Saaverda et al., 2010). As a result, swimming performance is not defined by a fixed set of underlying performance characteristics, but rather achieved through individualistic combinations which can change throughout a swimmer's career (Vaeyens et al., 2008; Barbosa et al., 2013; Barbosa et al., 2019; Elferink-Gemser & Visscher 2012). While acknowledging that swimmers have unique profiles contributing to swimming performance, cross-sectional studies show a range of characteristics that set elite swimmers (i.e., those ranked in the top 50 worldwide) apart from non-elites. These include faster progression of swim performance between and within seasons (Post et al., 2020a; Post et al., 2020b); a highly efficient stroke (Sánchez & Arellano, 2002); pacing behavior which better fits the tasks demands (Menting et al., 2022; Lopez-Belmonte et al., 2022) and advantageous anthropometrics (Rejman et al., 2018). However, with most studies in elite swimming focusing on adults (Costa et al 2012), little is known about the developmental pathway towards swimming expertise. For example, the systematic narrative review of Morais et al. (2021) found only eight longitudinal studies on youth swimmers’ development over multiple seasons, highlighting the need for research that shed light on the journey towards swimming excellence. In particular, research on the development of swim performance and its underlying characteristics during the junior-to-senior transition is lacking. This normative transition signifies the moment at which swimmers start to participate in adult competitions (Larsen & Alfermann et al., 2012), which is typically driven by age-related policies of a swimming federation. Apart from inherent changes in practice and competition, like competing in the open age category instead of annual age categories, the transition from junior to senior in sports frequently aligns with significant other life transitions, such as the move from high school to university (Wylleman and Lavellee, 2004). Consequently, the junior-to-senior transition is considered as the most demanding and difficult phase in the trajectory towards the elite level (Stambulova et al. 2009). During this critical stage, many talented athletes face stagnation, opt for recreational sports, or even discontinue their athletic pursuits, while only a select few master the transition to the senior elite level (Güllich et al., 2023; Stambulova, 2009). In swimming, this is exemplified by the study of Brustio et al., (2021) which found that the junior-to-senior transition rate amongst elite European swimming
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