127 Tracking talented swimmers during the junior-to-senior transition 6 Underlying performance characteristics and its development A closer analysis of the assessed underlying characteristics of swim performance revealed that high-performing seniors were taller (small effect sizes in males; large effect sizes in females) and significantly outperformed lower-performing peers in terms of maximal swimming velocity (very large effect sizes) at late junior age (males aged 17; females aged 16). These findings align with previous studies that have reported advantageous anthropometrics and higher swimming speed among faster swimmers, particularly in the youth category (Morais et al 2017; Barbosa et al., 2019; Morais et al., 2022). It is noteworthy that both male and female high-performing seniors exhibit swimming speeds at late junior age that are nearly comparable to those of finalists of the European Championships in 2021, as evidenced by the values approaching 100%. Additionally, high-performing senior females demonstrated significantly higher SI at late junior age compared to their lower-performing peers (very large effect sizes). This finding corresponds with existing literature showing that faster (early junior) swimmers distinguished themselves from others with better SI (Morais et al., 2021; Barbosa et al., 2019). However, contrary to our initial hypothesis, no differences in SI were observed among males. Given that their SI scores are the farthest from reaching values close to 100%, overall swimming efficiency seems to be the (relatively) weakest point for males when compared to other variables at late junior age. It is important to note that both maximal swimming velocity and SI were derived from the 25-meter sprint test, and therefore, they should be considered together. When considering these variables collectively, it can be concluded that high-performing seniors demonstrated higher maximal swimming velocity with the same (males) or even higher levels of SI (females) at late junior age compared to their peers. This may be an important advantage as swimmers need to maintain optimal power output in an efficient and skillful manner throughout the event (Miyashita, 1996). Moreover, we found that high-performing seniors demonstrated significantly faster rates of progression on maximal swimming velocity (males) and SI (females) during the junior-to-senior transition. Notably, it is precisely in these variables that lower-performing peers experienced a plateau in their progress (as evidenced by beta values close to zero), indicating that high-performing seniors were extending their advantages even further over time. As expected, high-performing seniors demonstrated higher lower body power (medium effect sizes in males; very large effect sizes and significant in females) and faster turns (very large effect size and significant in males; large effect sizes in females) compared to lower-performing seniors at late junior age. In the case of turns, high-performing males demonstrated significantly faster rates of progression. Moreover, starts were significantly faster for high-performing senior males (very large effect sizes) at late junior age, whereas no differences were observed among females. When compared to other variables, it is evident that females’ starts are their relatively weakest point, as their start performances show the greatest deviation from values close to 100%. It is worth noting, however, that
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