145 Growing up and reaching for the top: A longitudinal study of talented swimmers 7 Introduction Competitive swimming is a sport where every fraction of a second can make the difference between winning or losing (World Aquatics, 2016). This compels elite swimmers to pursue the perfect race, constantly refining even the smallest details of their performances (ANP, 2017). However, these swimmers did not start out as world-class athletes; they were once aspiring junior swimmers who belonged to a group where only a tiny minority would eventually reach the top (Brustio et al., 2021; Güllich et al., 2023; Barreiros et al., 2014). What characterizes their successful development towards swimming expertise compared to their peers who did not make it to the top? Undoubtedly, a significant element in the progression from competing at local junior meets to excelling at the World Championships is the continuous improvement of swim performance over time. This increase could be attributed to the development of swimmers’ underlying performance characteristics, including anthropometric, physiological, technical, tactical, and psychological factors (Elferink-Gemser & Visscher, 2012). Accordingly, researchers emphasize the importance of conducting multi-dimensional and longitudinal studies to unravel the pathway towards swimming expertise (Cobley and Till, 2017). Yet, such studies are scarce in the literature, leaving a significant gap for further exploration (Morais et al., 2021). A particularly intriguing period to investigate would be the pubertal years, which marks a period when performance development aligns with maturation (Malina et al., 2004a). Maturation reflects the timing and tempo of progress towards the mature adult state, which highly varies between individuals (Malina et al., 2004a). It is the driving force for many processes, including the adolescent growth spurt, which typically occurs at 12 ± 2 years in girls and 14 ± 2 years in boys (Till et al., 2020). Previous studies have shown a strong relationship between maturation and physical performance indicators such as size, strength, power and speed (Malina et al., 2004b; Abbott et al., 2021a; Lätt et al., 2009; Oliveira et al., 2021). Moreover, Morais et al. (2014, 2022) found that swimmers minimize performance impairment or even progress in periods of detraining due to growth spurts. Commonly, the pubertal years also signify the time when the initial stages of talent identification processes are carried out (KNZB, 2023). However, due to the potential asynchrony between chronological and biological age (Towlson et al., 2018), accurately assessing a swimmer’s current performance level can be challenging during this key developmental phase (Malina et al., 2004a). Furthermore, given that maturing swimmers undergo natural, yet highly individual and unpredictable improvements in performance, it can be difficult to distinguish between progress resulting from growing up and progress indicative of the potential for future elite level performances (Malina et al., 2004a). These challenges can create confusion in evaluating a swimmer’s potential and may introduce
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