163 Growing up and reaching for the top: A longitudinal study of talented swimmers 7 Discussion The present study investigated the development of swim performance and its underlying performance characteristics throughout puberty, differentiating between swimmers who were on track to the elite level (referred to as high-performing late juniors) and those who were not (referred to as lower-performing late juniors) at late junior age (males aged 16; females aged 15). Retrospectively studying these swimmers, we found that high-performing late juniors outperformed their lower-performing peers on most of the assessed underlying performance characteristics during the pubertal years (males aged 13-15; females aged 12-14). Furthermore, high-performing late juniors were characterized with significantly faster development in season best performances, maximal swimming velocity and SI (males only) throughout puberty. Performance Our findings showed that all high-performing late junior swimmers (except for two females) were already on track to the elite level at early junior age (males aged 12; females aged 11). Additionally, these swimmers demonstrated significantly faster season best performances throughout puberty (males aged 13-15; females aged 12-14) compared to their lower-performing peers. This trend aligns with the finding that top-elite swimmers (best 8 world-wide) progressively outperformed their lower-performing peers, starting from the age of 12 (Post et al., 2020a). As such, our results suggest that achieving higher levels of swim performance at early junior age may signify a minimal level of proficiency, serving as a prerequisite for further progression towards swimming expertise. This observation aligns with the work of Yustres et al., (2019) in competitive swimming, and research in cycling (Gallo et al., 2022; Mostaert et al., 2022). However, it is important to note that our findings also reveal that only a minority of the high-performing swimmers at early junior age was able to sustain their performance level until the end of puberty (36% in males; 28% in females). This demonstrates that early achievements in itself do not necessarily guarantee successful development towards higher performance levels, a notion supported by previous studies in both competitive swimming and other sports (Brustio et al., 2021; Güllich et al., 2023; Barreiros et al., 2014;). Instead, in line with Brustio et al. (2022), our findings underscore that the significantly faster progression in season best performances shown by high-performing late juniors (+11% in males and +12% in females as reported in our study) holds equal, or perhaps even greater importance than current performance in the advancement towards swimming expertise. Underlying performance characteristics Aligning with the progressive trends observed in season best performances, our findings demonstrate that high-performing late junior swimmers had significantly higher levels, as well as faster progression (+22% in males; +20% in females) on maximal swimming velocity
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