8 Chapter 1 While champions thrive, a new wave of future stars quietly rises As a sport known for its close margins where differences of just 0.03 seconds can determine victory or defeat, competitive swimming has a long history of success in The Netherlands. With an impressive tally of 62 Olympic medals up to 2024 (Olympian Database, 2024), Dutch swimmers have firmly established themselves as a force to be reckoned with, even when competing against swimming giants like the USA and Australia. Yet, we should not take this rich tradition of achievement for granted. In a relatively small country like the Netherlands, the pool of potential world-leading swimmers is limited. Typically, there are only about 16 swimmers every four years who successfully navigate the long and challenging path that leads to participation in the Olympic Games (Olympian Database, 2024). Among them, a few get the opportunity to compete for top positions on the podium, following the footsteps of icons like Pieter van den Hoogenband, Inge de Bruijn and Ranomi Kromowidjojo. Given this context, and even in the midst of remarkable achievements in the past and present, it is important to direct our attention towards the future. Who will be the next generation to rise and uphold the nation’s high standard of performance, and how can we best guide them on the journey towards the elite level? In other words: if we aspire to maintain our strong standing on the global swimming stage, we must truly excel in our efforts of finding and nurturing the upcoming wave of swimming talent. Talent identification and development in Dutch swimming Starting at the age of twelve, the Royal Dutch Swimming Federation (KNZB) initiates its endeavor to identify talented swimmers, aiming to provide them with optimal learning environments to accelerate or realize their potential towards swimming expertise (KNZB, 2024; Williams & Reilly, 2000). These talent development programs are designed to support promising swimmers with various benefits, including expert coaching, improved facilities, and the chance to train alongside other talented peers (KNZB, 2024). Unfortunately, due to capacity limitations in the talent identification and development (TID) system, coaches must decide who receives additional developmental opportunities, a privilege limited to a small group of selected swimmers only (Till et al., 2020). The main source of information to make these selections are the swimmers’ season best times and how they rank nationally. This approach appears reasonable given that swimming is fundamentally about travelling a certain distance in the water as fast as possible (Barbosa et al., 2010a). Moreover, thanks to advancements in technology like electronic timekeeping and the availability of competition data online (Swimrankings, 2024; World Aquatics, 2024), collecting this information is both reliable and straightforward. However, while
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